Calefactio globalis
Calefactio globalis sive climatis mutatio[1] est auctio mediae temperaturae atmosphaerae et oceanorum Telluris post saeculum undevicensimum exiens et eius continuatio opinabilis. Post saeculum vicensimum ineunte, media superficiei Telluris temperatura circa 0.8 C crevit, cuius circa duae partes incrementi post annum 1980 factae sunt.[2] Calefactio systematis climatis est clarissima, et scientistae sunt certi plus quam 90 centesimas eam praecipue per crescentis gasorum thermocepicorum concentrationes ob actiones humanas sicut fomes fossiles incensi et desilvatio effectam esse.[3][4][5][6] Hae inventiones agnoscuntur ab omnibus academiis scientiae naturalis omnium maiorum civitatum industrializatarum.[7]
Epitoma proiectionum exemplaris climatis in Quarta Aestimationis Relatione IPSS (2007) ab Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change datur; quo IPCC indicat per saeculum vicensimum globalem superficiei temperaturam probabiliter elevari addita 1.1 ad 2.9 C in sua minima, et a 2.4 ad 6.4 C in sua maxima aestimatione emissionum.[8] Variationes harum aestimationum ex usu exemplarium quibus sunt variae climatis sentiendi facultates erga gasia thermocepica oriuntur.[9][10]
Calefactio et mutationes coniunctae ob effectus inter regiones circa Tellurem variabuntur.[11] Inter effectus incrementi temperaturae globalis sunt elevatio aequoris maris, mutatio summae et exemplaribus praecipitationis, et probabilis desertorum subtropicorum expansio.[12] Calefactio exspectari maxima in regione Arctica, cum continuo recessu montium glaciei, pruinae perennis, et glaciei marinae consociata. Alii calefactionis effectus probabiles frequentiores eventuum caeli extremi casus comprehendunt, inter quos undae caloris, siccitates, maior pluvia, acidificatio oceanorum, et exstinctiones specierum ob permutantia temperaturae regimina. Inter effectus hominibus magni momenti sunt amplus cibus ex messibus deminutis et detrimentum habitationis ob inundationes. Si media temperatura globalis 4 C super gradum praeindustrialem augetur, veri simile erit fines adaptionis humanae in multis orbis terrarum regionibus excedi, et multa systemata naturalia se accommodare plerumque nequire; quo facto, homines damnum contrahere beneficiorum quae illa systemata praebent et ex quibus vita et cultura humanae dependent.[13]
Notae
recensere- ↑ In littera encyclica papae Francisci "Laudato si'".
- ↑ America's Climate Choices. Vasingtoniae, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5
- ↑ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- ↑ "Three different approaches are used to describe uncertainties each with a distinct form of language. . . . Where uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results), then the following likelihood ranges are used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%; extremely likely >95%; very likely >90%." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Treatment of Uncertainty, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- ↑ IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
- ↑ America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Vasingtoniae, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0
- ↑ "Joint Science Academies' Statement" (PDF)
- ↑ Meehl et al., "Global Climate Projections" (capitulum 10), "Mean Temperature" (sectio 10), in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- ↑ Schneider Von Deimling, Thomas; Held, Ganopolski, Rahmstorf (2006). "Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate". Climate Dynamics
- ↑ Meehl et al., "Global Climate Projections" (capitulum 10), "Quantifying the Range of Climate Change" (sectio 10.5), in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- ↑ Solomon et al., "Technical Summary," "Regional-Scale Projections" (sectio TS.5.3), in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
- ↑ Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas (2007). "Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (6): L06805
- ↑ Warren, Rachel (Ianuarius 2011). "The role of interactions in a world implementing change adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate". Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369 (1934): 217–241
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- Commentationes ab IPCC edita
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Nexus interni
Nexus externi
recensere- Investigationes
- Climate Change at the National Academies, dels.nas.edu
- DISCOVER, discover.itsc.ush.edu
- Educational Global Climate Modelling, edgcm.columbia.edu (EdGCM)
- Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet, www.istl.org
- Global Warming Art, www.globalwarmingart.com
- Met Office: Climate change, www.metoffice.gov.uk (National Weather Service)
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, www.giss.nasa.gov (Global Change Research)
- Nature Reports Climate Change, www.nature.com
- NOAA State of the Climate Report, www.ncdc.noaa.gov
- Educatio
- Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories, demonstrations.wolfram.com (Harvey Lam, Wolfram Demonstrations Project)
- Global Warming, cgs.illinois.edu (Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois)
- Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, www.c2es.org
- Climate Change Indicators in the United States, www.epa.gov (United States Environmental Protection Agency)
- Collectio materialium de calefactione globali, www,hamburger-bildungsserver.de
- Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth, climate.jpl.nasa.gov (NASA, JPL; Caltech)
- Global Climate Change Indicators, www.ncdc.noaa.gov (NOAA)
- Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge, site.videoproject.com (Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland)
- Global Warming, chemistry.beloit.edu
- Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions, www.ncdc.noaa.gov (NOAA)
- Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future, www.ipy.org (National Academy of Sciences)
- Klimawiki, www.klimawiki.org
- NOAA Climate Services, www.climate.gov (NOAA)
- OurWorld 2.0, ourworld.unu.edu (United Nations University)
- Pagina IPCC et eius Quarta relatio de calefactione globali (Anglice)
- Pellicula de effectibus calefactionis globalis in Insula Sancti Laurentii in Mari Beringensi, www.pbs.org (PBS)
- Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions, www.ucar.edu (UCAR)
- What Is Global Warming? green.nationalgeographic.com (National Geographic)