Cliodynamica (Clio, musa historiae, + dynamica, studium mutationis per tempus[1]) est transdisciplinaria investigationis regio, quae evolutionem culturalem, historiam oeconomicam, cliometricam, macrosociologiam, mathematicam rationum historicarum examinationem per longue durée, et constructionem explicationemque repositoriorum datorum historicorum coniungit.[2] Cliodynamica historiam aestimat scientiam esse. Exercitatores rationes quae rationes dynamicas sicut ortus casusque imperiorum, incrementa imminutionesque multitudinum, divulgatio exitusque religionum explicant.[3][4] Haec rationes in exemplaria numeralia convertunt; denique, praedictiones exemplarium cum datis comparantur. Ergo, construere et explicare repositoria datorum historicorum et informationem archaeologicam est unus e finibus cliodynamicae maximi momenti.[5]

Cliodynamica historicas inclinationes e datis sociologicis explicare conatur.


Vocabulum, primum a Petro Turchin anno 2003 excogitatum,[6] in operibus Ibn Khalduni,[7] Alexandri Deulofeu, Iacobi Gildstone, Sergii Kapitsa, Randall Collins, Ioannis Komlos, et Andreae Korotayev invenitur.

Nexus interni


  1. Parry 2013.
  2. Turchin 2008.
  3. Schrodt 2005.
  4. Sussan 2013.
  5. Spinney 2012.
  6. Orf 2013.
  7. Tainter 2004: 488.


  • Burkhart, Richard H. 2016. "Applied Mathematics and Political Crises". Siam News.
  • Currie, Thomas E., et Ruth Mace. 2009. Political complexity predicts the spread of ethnolinguistic groups. PNAS 106 (18): 7339–44. doi:10.1073/pnas.0804698106. PMC 2670878. PMID 19380740.
  • Dzogang, Fabon, Thomas Lansdall-Welfare, FindMyPast Newspaper Team, et Nello Cristianini. 2016. Discovering Periodic Patterns in Historical News. PlosOne 11 (11): e0165736. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165736. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 5100883. PMID 27824911.
  • Dzogang, Fabon, Thomas Lansdall-Welfare, et Nello Cristianini. 2016. Seasonal Fluctuations in Collective Mood Revealed by Wikipedia Searches and Twitter Posts. Proceedings of the 2016 IEEE international conference on data mining workshop (SENTIRE), Barcelona, 12–15.
  • Finley, Klint. 2013. Mathematicians Predict the Future with Data from the Past. Wired.
  • Goldstone, J. 1991. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeleiae Californiae: University of California Press.
  • Graber, Robert B. 2008. Review of Andrey Korotayev, Artemy Malkov, and Darkia Khaltourina, Introduction to Social Macrodynamics (Three Volumes). Journal of Social Evolution and History 7 (2).
  • Greby, James. 2016. "Cliodynamics" Research Proves American Freaks Out Every 50 Years. Inverse.
  • Keen, Steven, et Charles Owen. 2017. The Value of Everything: E120: Professor Steve Keen Interview. The Future of Money. Segmentum apud 47:18 incipit.
  • Kirby, Kathryn R., Russell D. Gray, Susan J. Greenhill, Fiona M. Jordan, Stephanie Gomes-Ng, Hans-Jörg Bibiko, Damián E. Blasi, Carlos A. Botero, Claire Bowern, Carol R. Ember, Dan Leehr, Bobbi S. Low, Joe McCarter, et William Divale 2016. D-PLACE: A Global Database of Cultural, Linguistic and Environmental Diversity. PLoS ONE 11 (7): e0158391. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158391. PMC 4938595. PMID 27391016.
  • Komlos, J., et S. Nefedov. 2002. Compact Macromodel of Pre-Industrial Population Growth. Historical Methods (35): 92–94.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V. 2006. The World System urbanization dynamics. In History & mathematics: Historical dynamics and development of complex societies. History & mathematics, ed. Peter Turchin, Leonid Efimovich Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev, et Victor C. de Munck, 44–62. Moscuae: KomKniga/URSS. ISBN 978-5-484-01002-8.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V., Artemy Sergeevich Malkov, et Daria Khaltourina. 2006. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscuae: URSS. ISBN 978-5-484-00414-0.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V., Artemy Sergeevich Malkov, et Daria Khaltourina. 2006. Introduction to social macrodynamics: secular cycles and millennial trends. Moscuae: URSS. ISBN 978-5-484-00559-8.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V., et Daria Khaltourina. 2006. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscuae: URSS. ISBN 978-5-484-00560-4.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V., et J. Zinkina. 2011. Egyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis. Entelequia: Revista Interdisciplinar 13: 139–169.
  • Korotayev, Andrey V., et al. 2011. A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. Cliodynamics 2 (2): 1–28.
  • Koyama, Mark. 2016. Review of Ultra Society: how 10,000 years of war made humans the greatest cooperators on earth by Peter Turchin. Journal of Bioeconomics 18 (3): 239–242. doi:10.1007/s10818-016-9234-7. ISSN 1387-6996.
  • Lange, Matthew. 2012. Comparative-Historical Methods. Londinii: Sage.
  • Orf, Darren. 2013. Can Math Predict the Rise and Fall of Empires? Popular Mechanics.
  • Parry, Marc. 2013. Quantitative History Makes a Comeback. The Chronicle of Higher Education.
  • Peregrine, Peter N. 2003. Atlas of Cultural Evolution. World Cultures 14(1).
  • Schrodt, Philip A. 2005. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall by Peter Turchin. Contemporary Sociology: A Journal of Reviews 34 (2): 213–215. doi:10.1177/009430610503400268. ISSN 0094-3061.
  • Seabright, Paul. 2004. Book Review: Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall by Peter Turchin. The Economics of Transition 12 (4): 801–809. doi:10.1111/j.0967-0750.2004.00203.x. ISSN 0967-0750.
  • Spinney, Laura. 2012. Human cycles: History as Science. Nature.
  • Spinney, Laura. 2016. The database that is rewriting history to predict the future. New Scientist.
  • Sussan, Remi. 2013. Au coeur de la cliodynamique (1/2): les cycles historiques. Internet Actu.
  • Tainter, Joseph A. 2004. Plotting the downfall of society: Review of Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall by Peter Turchin. Nature 427 (6974): 488–489. doi:10.1038/427488a.
  • Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. In Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics, ed. M. G. Dmitriev et A. P. Petrov, 367–69. Moscuae: Russian State Social University.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princetoniae Novae Caesareae: Princeton University Press.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2005. War and Peace and War. Plume.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2008. Arise "cliodynamics." Nature 454 (7200): 34–35. doi:10.1038/454034a. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 18596791.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2009. A theory for formation of large states. Journal of Global History 4 (2): 191–217. doi:10.1017/s174002280900312x.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2011. Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach. Structure and Dynamics 4 (3): 1–37.
  • Turchin, Peter, et Andrey Korotayev. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147.
  • Turchin, Peter, Leonid Efimovich Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev, et Victor C. de Munck, eds. 2006. History & mathematics: Historical dynamics and development of complex societies. History & mathematics. Moscuae: KomKniga/URSS. ISBN 978-5-484-01002-8.
  • Turchin P., et S. Nefedov. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princetoniae Novae Caesareae: Princeton University Press.
  • Turchin, Peter, Rob Brennan, Thomas E. Currie, Kevin C. Feeney, Pieter Francois, Dnaiel Hoyer, Joseph G. Manning, Arkadiusz Marciniak, Daniel Mullins, Alessio Palmisano, Peter Peregrine, Edward A. L. Turner, et Harvey Whitehouse. 2015. Seshat: The Global History Databank. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 6 (1): 77–107. doi:10.21237/c7clio6127917. ISSN 2373-7530.
  • Turchin, Peter. 2015. Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Beresta Books. ISBN 978-0996139519.
  • Zeigler, Donald. 2010. Book Review: Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin, Sergey A. Nefedov. International Social Science Review 85 (3/4): 165–166. JSTOR 41887467.
  • Zhao, Dingxin. 2006. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. By Peter Turchin. American Journal of Sociology 112 (1): 308–310. doi:10.1086/507802. ISSN 0002-9602.

Nexus externiRecensere