Prophetia sui effectrix

Prophetia sui effectrix est cum praedicto pollicitoque aliquo efficitur, ut, opinione agendique ratione se invicem adfirmantibus, id quod speratur aut timetur verum exsistat aut recta aut per anfractus. Robert Merton, sociologus Americanus, hanc notionem his fere verbis descripsit:

Prophetia sui effectrix est rerum definitio in principio falsa, quae quidem novas evocat agendi rationes, quibus efficitur, ut opinio initio falsa "vera" exsistat. Quae prophetia sui effectrix quae specie vera esse videtur regnum quoddam erroris perpetuat. Propheta enim cursum eventumque rerum pro testimonio dicet se ab initio recte praedixisse.^[1]

Merton inter alia complura fuga depositorum utitur exemplo: Si enim vagari incipiat rumor, argentariam certam brevi esse perituram, depositores huic rumori fidentes suas pecunias praecipient ex computis suis. Ex quibus reactionibus catenatis efficietur, ut argentaria illa re vera pereat. Sive verus sive falsus sit iste rumor, idem erit exitus rerum. Sufficiet, si satis multi rumori fidem fecerint.

Notae

↑ Merton (1968: 477): "The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning."

Bibliographia

Merton, Robert K. (1948) The Self-fulfilling Prophecy. Antioch Review 8: 193-210.
—————— (1968) Social Theory and Social Structure. New York: Free Press.

[1] Merton (1968: 477): "The self-fulfilling prophecy is, in the beginning, a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the original false conception come 'true'. This specious validity of the self-fulfilling prophecy perpetuates a reign of error. For the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning."

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